BBVA forecasts fewer Spanish home sales as prices rise

BBVA Research forecasts that home sales in Spain will fall 7.3% in 2026, even as demand remains strong. The bank expects house prices to rise 12% in 2026 and a further 5.7% in 2027. These are forecasts, not price changes already recorded.

The main constraint is insufficient housing supply. Construction is increasing but is projected to remain below new household formation. BBVA estimates that the accumulated shortage could reach 885,000 homes by 2027. Barriers include a lack of development-ready land and labour, planning delays and electricity-grid limits. Fewer transactions can therefore coincide with higher prices.